Daily decision cockpit
Dashboard
This is the first stop. It translates inflation pressure, long-yield repricing, TLT technicals, confidence, and active alerts into one current TLT stance.
- Use the stance card for the headline action bias.
- Use the Strategy Gate Monitor to see which historical permission rules are currently open.
- Use Top Drivers and Alerts to understand what changed and what could invalidate the read.
Price confirmation and duration sensitivity
TLT Price
This tab focuses on TLT itself: trend, price confirmation, and a scenario calculator for estimating how much TLT may move when long yields move.
- Use it to check whether TLT price agrees with the macro signal.
- The duration calculator is approximate, not a forecast.
- If TLT is below key averages while yields are rising, price is confirming a bearish duration regime.
Inflation pressure before the official print
Inflation
This tab watches CPI/PCE proxies, breakevens, expectations, and sticky inflation inputs to answer whether inflation pressure is rising, falling, or mixed.
- Rising inflation pressure is usually bearish TLT.
- Falling breakevens and cooling inflation data support a potential duration pivot.
- The goal is not just to know inflation is high; it is to see whether inflation is still forcing long yields higher.
Long-end repricing map
Yields
This tab separates nominal yields, real yields, breakevens, curve shape, and term premium so you can see what is actually pressuring TLT.
- Real-yield driven selloffs are directly bearish for long-duration bonds.
- Breakeven-driven moves point to inflation-expectation pressure.
- A lower-high in 30Y yields is one of the most important early pivot signals.
Policy path pressure
Fed
This tab summarizes whether the Fed path is becoming more or less supportive for TLT, using fed funds and 2Y yield repricing as the current rules-based proxy.
- Less expected easing or renewed hike/hold pressure is bearish TLT.
- A dovish repricing can support TLT if long yields and price confirm.
- Policy Watch keeps the major labor, inflation, and Fed events in one place.
Energy impulse and inflation shock risk
Energy
This tab tracks oil, gasoline, natural gas, and the energy supply-shock score because energy spikes can reaccelerate inflation expectations before CPI/PCE catches up.
- Rising energy prices are inflationary when they push breakevens and long yields higher.
- Energy strength without a yield response is less bearish and may signal exhaustion.
- Inventory detail is integration-ready once the EIA feed is configured.
Term premium and issuance pressure
Treasury Supply
This tab focuses on whether Treasury supply, auction demand, and term-premium pressure are making investors demand more compensation to own long bonds.
- Higher long-end issuance can be bearish TLT.
- Weak auctions can pressure term premium and long yields.
- Missing auction internals reduce confidence rather than creating false precision.
Crowding and volatility context
Positioning
This tab is a confidence modifier. It helps decide whether a macro signal has room to run or may already be crowded.
- Positioning should not dominate direction by itself.
- High volatility or crowded shorts can reduce confidence in a bearish TLT signal.
- CFTC Treasury positioning, MOVE, flows, and options data are planned provider hooks.
Historical validation, not a promise
Backtest
This tab asks whether simplified versions of the TLT rules improved the ride versus just owning TLT. It compares buy-and-hold, technical-only, macro-only, and combined long/flat approaches.
- Buy-and-hold is the baseline, not an active signal.
- Technical-only owns TLT when price is above the 50DMA and the 50DMA is above the 200DMA.
- Macro-only owns TLT when 30Y yields are falling and 5Y breakevens are not rising.
- Combined owns TLT only when macro and price confirmation agree.
Configuration and data health
Settings
This tab shows operating assumptions, data-provider status, and ingestion gaps so missing data is visible instead of silently affecting confidence.
- Use it to check whether required inputs are current.
- The static Snowblind build shows configuration state; deeper interactive controls can be added later.
- Missing data should lower confidence, not create a false signal.