Treasury Supply Pressure
Term premium proxy100
Current implementation uses FRED term premium as the live proxy. Auction tails, bid-to-cover, indirect share, and refunding detail are marked as data gaps until Treasury feeds are configured.
Daily stance / 2026-06-01
Wait / No New Position
Wait because the macro stack is mixed: bearish inflation/yield forces and bullish duration offsets are not aligned enough for a high-conviction action signal.
Net-27
Confidence51%
Bullish40
Bearish67
Term Premium
10Y term premiumData unavailable
What Matters
- Higher long-end issuance and weak auction demand are bearish long duration.
- Rising term premium means investors demand more compensation to own long bonds.
- Missing auction internals reduce confidence rather than overstating the signal.