Daily stance / 2026-06-01
Wait / No New Position
Wait because the macro stack is mixed: bearish inflation/yield forces and bullish duration offsets are not aligned enough for a high-conviction action signal.
Net-27
Confidence51%
Bullish40
Bearish67
Historical Backtest
Validation only, not a promise of future performance. Signals use lagged daily data and include simple slippage/transaction cost assumptions.
| Strategy | Total | Ann. | Max DD | Sharpe | Win Rate | Time In Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold TLT | 136.6% | 3.7% | -48.4% | 0.32 | 52.4% | 100.0% |
| Technical-only strategy | 4.5% | 0.2% | -33.8% | 0.07 | 47.4% | 34.5% |
| Macro-score-only strategy | 84.2% | 2.6% | -24.6% | 0.33 | 49.7% | 33.1% |
| Combined macro + technical | 74.7% | 2.4% | -15.8% | 0.34 | 49.6% | 19.9% |
| Long/flat strategy | 74.7% | 2.4% | -15.8% | 0.34 | 49.6% | 19.9% |